If you are keeping up with the market trends you are aware of a market dynamic we have not experienced since before 2008. You can’t just wake up and decide to purchase an aircraft and assume you can get one in service within a couple of months. In fact, the market might be as tight as we have ever seen on certain makes and models.
The market has turned from over supply to a tight supply of quality aircraft. Barring any outside disruptions, we see this continuing for at least the next few years if not longer.
I have written previously about how the number of aircraft built since the 2008 crash is substantially lower than the years preceding 2008. OEM’s reduced supply trying to match the tepid demand. New aircraft deliveries have hovered around 700 units per year plus or minus one standard deviation since the financial crisis. Owners kept their planes longer resulting in even high quality aircraft having more hours because they are trading later than initially planned. The results are fewer late model low time aircraft.
If you are buying used, you will need to be both patient and ready when the right plane comes along. It will take planning to know what you want, the parameters you are willing to accept and the budget you can live within.
If you are a flight department manager, it is critical to let your executives know that it could take several months to place a used aircraft in service. It might take months just to find one that meets your criteria. If it requires added equipment, paint and interior the process can be extended 2-3 months providing you can find a shop to do the work. If you are an executive, you need to plan for this longer time period and get your acquisition team together in advance of the go ahead to buy.
On the new side we are seeing longer backlogs. There will not be last minute deals because the OEM overbuilt. If you have requirements for certain equipment and interior configurations you will need to plan on buying and spec’ing your own aircraft. The typical OEM on larger aircraft requires at least 12 months and preferably longer to spec to a buyer’s specification.
What this means for buyers of a new plane is that if you have an aircraft coming off of a lease, mission changes or other reasons to upgrade, you need to start the process of fleet planning 6-12 months before your expected order date. This could mean fleet planning as much as 24-36 months out before the in-service date.
On a used plane, you need the fleet planning done so that when you enter the market you can execute if the right plane comes along. Fleet planning six months prior to starting to shop for an aircraft will go a long way in making sure you are ready.
It cannot be said enough, you also need to assemble your whole acquisition team prior to looking at your first aircraft. Far too many times the team has not been assembled and if you find the right aircraft, you do not have the right people ready to execute as quickly as this market requires. There will be opportunities but you need to be ready to move quickly.
It is time to be a boyscout.
Mike McCracken–President
Hawkeye Aircraft Acquisitions
