When is the jet market going to get better is the $64 question and if you know the answer, you could make a fortune! Everyone wants to know, is this the new normal? I am sure you have read, as I have, the numerous reports that the turn around is next quarter or third quarter or? Perhaps they should qualify with which next quarter!
It is perplexing as the reliable indicators are proving to be unreliable in this market. The macro models do not seem to be working, that is why you need to look at your own micro model.
The micro question is what difference does it make to my operation? What is the downside versus the possible upside or the risk/reward of a decision made today?
If you are buying, are you safe at the valuations? If you are selling, are you leaving residual value on the table? Is it worth delaying a few months to a couple of years to recoup value?
The answer is not simple and is different for each aircraft owner. There is not a one size fits all or a herd mentality answer.
Does it make economic sense for you to spend money upgrading avionics for future compliance, safety, paint and interior when the real upcoming need is for a more capable and reliable aircraft? Is it reasonable to make a change now before a possible upswing in values and leave hundreds of thousands on the table? Have our missions changed enough or are there other factors that indicate we need to change? Is what I leave on the table of residual value today offset by current values and more efficiency going forward? Is supplemental lift a shorter term alterantive?
The answer takes research and a detailed analysis, similar to other business decisions you make when deploying your capital. These are not emotional decisions, but practical fact driven decisions. Fully understanding the current conditions and making model assumptions that are in line with the economics and planning for your company will help you make an informed decision.
This is the reason you need a partner like Hawkeye Aircraft Acquisitions to assist in preparing the models and analysis to help you make a solid business decision.
Mike McCracken
Hawkeye Aircraft Acquisitions LLC
Office 727 796 0903
